After a spectacular 2018 where prices averaged in excess of US$35/lb, principally as a consequence of strong demand growth from the lithium-ion battery industry, Fastmarkets MB’s standard-grade/low assessment – the international benchmark price – fell throughout 2019 until early August. Since then, the industry benchmark price has gained by almost 30%. Some attribute this to multiple curtailment announcements amongst miners, both in the DRC and elsewhere. Yet, in reality, signs of imminent recovery in cobalt prices were evident by mid-July – when both Chinese domestic metal prices, and hydroxide payables, started to rise; and the reason was mining costs.
At the current price, between 20 - 30% of global cobalt mine supply is at risk of disappearing in 2020. Some of this will be replenished with ramp-ups at major industrial projects, but not enough to close the gap. Some may be supplied by existing stockpiles, but these are held in stable hands and will fall to critical levels over the course of 2020.
To regain lost supply in the short-term, a sustained price in excess of US$15/lb is needed. In the long-term, US$20/lb and above is required to attract much-needed capital to the industry.
Eurasian Resources Group is a low cost copper and cobalt producer, well-positioned to supply an almost two-fold increase in cobalt demand by 2025, with more than 18 million new energy vehicles forecast to be produced globally over the next three years.
Read the article online at: https://www.globalminingreview.com/trade-transport/02092019/erg-comments-on-cobalt-market-prospects/