Why critical minerals alignment is key for the USMCA – and for manufacturers

The first official USMCA negotiating round opens the final week of May in Mexico City, and critical minerals are at the centre of the agenda.

Both the US and Mexico have indicated in no uncertain terms that mineral security will be a priority for remaining both competitive and secure on the global stage. The US-Mexico Critical Minerals Action Plan, announced in February as a stepping stone toward the USMCA review, has already begun to explore coordinated trade policies, price floors, and joint-investment frameworks for the minerals that power EV batteries, AI chips, semiconductor fabrication, and advanced defence systems.

Below is a brief look at why this alignment is so crucial, what it may look like in practice, and what it would mean for the manufacturers who rely on these minerals for their day-to-day operations.

China’s monopoly

China controls roughly 70% of global critical minerals refining capacity, according to the IEA. The concentration is even more extreme for particular minerals: 99% of gallium, 91% of rare earth separation, 79% of graphite processing. For minerals like lithium, nickel, and cobalt, China's share of raw extraction sits between 10% and 30%, yet its share of refining reaches 60% to 70%. China’s monopoly isn't in the ground; it's in the processing.

The obvious strategic threat posed by such heavy dependence is amplified by Beijing’s apparent willingness to weaponise their position, restricting exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony in response to US semiconductor controls. That is as much a national security hazard as it is an operational risk for the manufacturers who depend on these inputs.

Mexico’s answer

Mexico produces or holds reserves of at least a dozen minerals on the US List of Critical Minerals, including copper, silver, lithium, graphite, and many others. It is the world's largest producer of silver, which appeared on the list for the first time in 2025 for its role in electronics, solar photovoltaics, and advanced conductors. An estimated 1.7 million t of lithium resources are also spread across 82 known deposits in 18 states.

All of this means that a large proportion of North America’s critical-mineral needs can be met entirely from within – if there is sufficient processing capacity to turn ore into usable materials. That is China’s advantage, and it’s what both the US and Mexico will be eager to address in the weeks to come.

What this means for manufacturers

The negotiating teams will aim to establish joint frameworks for investment screening, regulatory alignment, and supply-chain support, all in an effort to encourage long-term investment in regional processing. Lower barriers to entry and decreased overhead alone may make sourcing minerals locally more profitable and secure than relying on transoceanic supply lines.

Such measures could be compounded by stronger rules of origin surrounding minerals, coordinated external tariffs against nonmarket producers, and preferential access to US incentives – fundamentally changing the maths on where it makes sense to source, process, and build.

Bottom line

The minerals in Mexico's ground are a geological fact. To convert them into a strategic asset, however, the governments of the US and Mexico must pave the way for onshore processing on a massive scale. For manufacturers, that may just mean that sourcing locally becomes the future-minded strategy.

Read the article online at: https://www.globalminingreview.com/special-reports/28052026/why-critical-minerals-alignment-is-key-for-the-usmca-and-for-manufacturers/