Seabed mining and the future of critical mineral supply from frontier opportunity to emerging resource sector

As demand for critical minerals continues to grow, securing reliable, long-term sources of supply is becoming an increasingly strategic priority. The combined market value of key energy transition minerals (cobalt, copper, graphite, lithium, nickel, and rare earths) is forecast by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to increase by 55% by 2030 to more than US$500 billion and exceed US$700 billion by 2040.

These projections are based on the IEA’s CO₂ Emission Announced Pledges Scenario (APS). To support this growth under the APS, the IEA (2024) estimates that approximately US$590 billion in new capital investment in mining will be required between 2024 and 2040. Beyond the energy transition, growing demand from data centers, defence, manufacturing, and electronics is placing additional pressure on already constrained supply chains.

There is also a significant and growing concentration of supply sources, which could pose a strategic risk. For copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and rare earth elements, the average market share of the top three producers rose to 86% in 2024 from approximately 82% in 2020, with almost all of this growth coming from the two top suppliers: Indonesia for nickel and China for all other minerals, as reported by the IEA.

The supply mix

Traditional terrestrial mining and recycling will continue to play important roles in meeting future demand, but it will be challenging for either to scale at the level and pace required. Declining copper and other ore grades, long permitting timelines, and growing global demand (EASAC, 2023; Roland Berger, 2023) are driving interest in additional long-term sources of critical minerals. This includes critical minerals that occur on the seafloor, in the form of polymetallic nodules, cobalt and manganese-rich crusts, polymetallic seafloor massive sulfides, and muds rich in rare earth elements.

Polymetallic nodules are unique in both composition and occurrence. These nodules concentrate nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese in a single ore body that can be collected directly from the sea floor. Because the nodules are not attached to the seafloor, collection does not require methods used in conventional terrestrial mining. Thus, the seafloor offers an alternative source of critical minerals with the potential to reshape the industry.

However, the development is rarely driven by geological factors alone. Industries develop when market demand, commodity price environments, technology, capital, and regulatory frameworks converge. Regarding polymetallic nodule collection, there are indications that this convergence is underway.

From frontier to reality

In 2025, the US issued Executive Order 14285, declaring critical minerals a national security priority, launching a coordinated federal initiative to unlock offshore and deep-sea mining potential. In response, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) began advancing a licensing and permitting pathway for deep seabed mineral resource exploration and commercial recovery. Together, these developments have helped move the sector from one that is largely conceptual to one that is poised for commercial development.

This reflects a familiar pattern witnessed in other frontier offshore industries. The offshore energy sector provides a useful comparison. Today, the offshore oil and gas industry is viewed as an established component of global energy supply. Yet, regions once considered too technically challenging, commercially uncertain, and complex to develop at scale, such as the deepwater Gulf of Mexico and offshore Brazil, were, over time, transformed into major sources of global energy production as a result of the convergence of advances in drilling technology, subsurface imaging, production technology, and new regulatory frameworks.

Seabed mining, particularly polymetallic nodule collection, has fundamental differences from offshore oil and gas. Unlike oil and gas, polymetallic nodules are inert, non-fluid, non-flammable, and non-fugitive. Further, the concept of subsurface risk does not apply to polymetallic nodule collection, as the nodules are visible and are simply collected from the seafloor.

Despite this, many of the commercialisation requirements are similar. Both involve complex offshore operations, evolving regulatory frameworks, substantial capital requirements, environmental safeguards, and the need to build confidence among governments, investors, and the broader public.

Signs of Industry Formation

The seabed minerals sector is increasingly shifting from discussions of possibility to discussions regarding execution. In the US, NOAA has modernised the regulatory framework governing deep seabed exploration and commercial recovery and is actively advancing applications through its federal review process.

For the mining industry, the significance of seabed minerals extends beyond any single project or company. What makes the sector noteworthy is not a single development, but the broader transition now underway. Growing demand for critical minerals, advancing offshore capabilities, increasing regulatory activity, and a heightened focus on supply chain security are reshaping the future of critical mineral resources and the potential role of seabed mining.

Read the article online at: https://www.globalminingreview.com/mining/09072026/seabed-mining-and-the-future-of-critical-mineral-supply-from-frontier-opportunity-to-emerging-resource-sector/