South America is increasingly becoming one of the most strategically important mining regions for the future stability of global copper and lithium supply. Chile, Peru, and Argentina sit at the centre of two minerals that are critical to the global economy: copper, which underpins electrification and infrastructure development, and lithium, which remains essential for energy storage and battery supply chains.
Recent projections presented during the CESCO Week 2025 indicate that South America could account for between 34% and 48% of global copper supply over the coming decades. At the same time, Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia continue consolidating their position within the world’s lithium triangle, which contains some of the largest lithium brine resources globally.
Across Chile, Peru, and Argentina, there are currently 42 identified copper projects representing approximately US$138 billion in projected investment and more than six million additional tonnes of copper production potential. However, even under these aggressive investment scenarios, the market still faces a projected structural copper deficit of between 16.8 Mt and 19.9 Mt by 2050. The challenge is no longer discovering mineral resources but converting those resources into stable production quickly enough to meet accelerating global demand.
A region producing more – but differently
One of the most significant structural shifts taking place in South America is not only the volume of copper being produced, but how that production is evolving. According to Cochilco data, total copper production in South America increased by 10.4% over the last decade. However, this growth has been driven almost entirely by copper concentrates, whose exports increased by 43.6% during the same period.
At the same time, regional refined copper production, SXEW cathodes, and smelting output declined by 28.5%. Chile reflects this transition even more sharply, with SXEW production declining by 31.2%, copper smelting production falling by 28%, and total copper production remaining largely stagnant since 2018.
This transition is strategically important because it highlights how the region is becoming increasingly dependent on concentrator plants and more complex mineral processing routes to sustain production. Declining ore grades, ageing assets, increasing ore hardness, water restrictions, and greater mineral complexity are reshaping operational priorities across South America.
A similar pattern is emerging in lithium production. While long-term lithium demand projections remain strong, new projects across South America continue facing growing pressure related to water usage, permitting timelines, infrastructure readiness, energy availability, and social acceptance. The industry is entering a phase where operational execution and processing efficiency are becoming just as important as resource scale.
The 2036 turning point
Projections presented during CESCO Week 2025 identify a critical inflection point for the mining industry. South American copper supply is projected to peak around 2036 at approximately 16–17 Mt before entering a gradual long-term decline toward 2050. Globally, copper supply is expected to follow a similar trajectory, reaching a projected peak of approximately 35 – 36 Mt around 2036 before declining thereafter.
This timing is significant because global demand continues accelerating simultaneously. The electrification of transport, expansion of renewable energy infrastructure, grid modernisation, AI-driven data centre growth, and battery manufacturing are all increasing long-term demand for both copper and lithium.
The mining sector is effectively entering a decade where execution capability will become more important than resource declarations alone.
The real bottleneck: execution
The mining industry often discusses future supply in terms of new discoveries and project pipelines. However, the largest challenge facing South America may not be geology, but execution. Permitting timelines, infrastructure constraints, desalination requirements, power availability, water management, political uncertainty, declining recoveries, and operational instability are increasingly defining project economics across the region.
This is where operational performance becomes strategic. Recoveries, classification efficiency, screening performance, sampling accuracy, water recovery, and plant stability are no longer secondary operational indicators. They directly influence whether projects achieve production targets, operational stability, and long-term economic viability.
This reality is also reshaping the role of suppliers within the mining ecosystem. Suppliers are no longer simply equipment manufacturers. Increasingly, they are becoming part of the mining industry’s broader execution capability.
From Multotec Chile’s position, working directly with operations across Chile and Peru, operational performance is already playing a defining role in the long-term sustainability of both copper and lithium-related processing operations.
The next decade will not be defined solely by who owns mineral resources underground. It will be defined by which operations, projects, and regions are capable of executing consistently, processing more efficiently, and adapting faster under increasingly complex mining conditions.
South America still has the opportunity to lead the next era of global copper and lithium supply. However, the window to execute is already open.