Natural resource extraction underpins much of today’s technological and infrastructure development, yet mines face growing pressure as weather patterns become more extreme and unexpected. In recent months, heavy rainfall has triggered disasters in Malaysia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Indonesia, resulting in loss of life and significant economic impacts. Mines are also facing higher costs, production slowdowns, and community tensions, driven by water shortages in regions like Chile, Zambia, and Nevada. At the centre of these challenges is managing water in an era where drought and deluge are now the norm.
The new hydrologic cycle
Most mining infrastructure is ill-prepared for today’s extreme weather, let alone the even more severe conditions expected in the coming decades. Seemingly stable slopes, suddenly inundated by intense rain, can give way to pit-wall collapse or landslides that fill pits, entrap workers, and halt production. Haul roads can become impassable, and equipment can fail. Reservoirs can rapidly overflow, risking tailings dam failure that endangers downstream communities and waterways. During extended dry spells, dust worsens air quality, ore processing slows, and limited hydropower reduces productivity.
Even with these known risks, companies are investing in infrastructure that will not withstand the new extremes on the horizon. Facilities are still being built based on historical weather assumptions rather than the more extreme conditions on a warmer planet. At existing facilities, most operators rely on seven-day weather forecasts, leaving no time to prepare for challenging weather patterns or extremes. These effects ripple far beyond the mine itself. Weather disruptions slow extraction, tighten supply, and fuel price volatility in commodities markets as well. The result is a growing form of weather debt in an industry deeply exposed to environmental change, yet essential for human progress.
What science shows about water cycle change
Some argue water cycle changes are too uncertain to plan for, but science says otherwise. Earth system models show wet regions getting wetter and dry areas drying further. As the planet warms, dry seasons are lasting longer, wet seasons arrive in shorter, more intense bursts, and the atmosphere holds more moisture, increasing the risk of heavy rainfall, flash floods, and landslides. Advances in Earth system science now allow us to estimate likely conditions both decades ahead and in the coming weeks and months. Unlike a standard 10-day forecast, these models draw on ocean, atmosphere, ice, and land data to provide guidance across longer timeframes.
A solution: Weather-aware mining
In the face of disruptive weather, these scientific advances can help make mining more resilient. Annual water cycle estimates, from probable maximum precipitation to consecutive dry days, can be calculated for mid-century conditions and used to produce future-looking specifications for new mining projects and infrastructure. Underground developments, open pits, reservoirs, tailings dams, and haul roads can be engineered to better withstand the more extreme hydrologic cycle ahead. Infrastructure for water recycling, extraction efficiency, and even desalination can be incorporated to ensure that facilities can deal with both too much and too little water.
At the same time, operational decisions can be made with an understanding of expected conditions weeks or months ahead. Operators can manage water shortages by reducing use early, scheduling shutdowns before unusually wet periods, and preparing for transport disruptions. Crews can time equipment maintenance before extreme heat or heavy rain, and safety teams can issue alerts when hazardous conditions are likely. Capital spending can then be directed toward assets most exposed to upcoming risks.
Value of weather-aware mining
Awareness of impending weather risks helps mines reduce costs, protect workers, and avoid liabilities. By integrating long-range forecasts into routine planning, mines can stay ahead of shifting seasonal patterns, make informed decisions about production and shipping, and design new facilities that reflect mid-century conditions. As rainfall and other weather extremes intensify, extended environmental intelligence, from next week to decades ahead, gives operators the lead time to build resilient infrastructure, maintain financial stability, and safeguard workers, nearby communities, and local ecosystems.
Authors
Dr. Hansi Singh, CEO and co-founder of Planette Karen Chovan, CEO and founder of Enviro Integration Strategies Inc.